Use of meteorological parameters for forecasting scarlet fever morbidity in Tianjin, Northern China.

Abstract

The scarlet fever incidence has increased drastically in recent years in China. However, the long-term relationship between climate variation and scarlet fever remains contradictory, and an early detection system is lacking. In this study, we aim to explore the potential long-term effects of variations in monthly climatic parameters on scarlet fever and to develop an early scarlet-fever detection tool. Data comprising monthly scarlet fever cases and monthly average climatic variables from 2004 to 2017 were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and National Meteorological Science Center, respectively. We used a negative binomial multivariable regression to assess the long-term impacts of weather parameters on scarlet fever and then built a novel forecasting technique by integrating an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) based on the significant meteorological drivers. Scarlet fever was a seasonal disease that predominantly peaked in spring and winter. The regression results indicated that a 1°C increment in the monthly average temperature and a 1-h increment in the monthly aggregate sunshine hours were associated with 17.578% (95% CI 7.674 to 28.393%) and 0.529% (95% CI 0.035 to 1.025%) increases in scarlet fever cases, respectively; a 1-hPa increase in the average atmospheric pressure at a 1-month lag was associated with 12.996% (95% CI 9.972 to 15.919%) decrements in scarlet fever cases. Based on the model evaluation criteria, the best-performing basic and combined approaches were ARDL(1,0,0,1) and ARDL(1,0,0,1)-NARNN(5, 22), respectively, and this hybrid approach comprised smaller performance measures in both the training and testing stages than those of the basic model. Climate variability has a significant long-term influence on scarlet fever. The ARDL-NARNN technique with the incorporation of meteorological drivers can be used to forecast the future epidemic trends of scarlet fever. These findings may be of great help for the prevention and control of scarlet fever.