Use of long-term nongravitational force models for fitting astrometric observations of comet Encke

Abstract

Based on the equations derived in (Usanin et al., 2016) a new solution combining the observations of 30 apparitions of the comet Encke from 1911 to 2010 is obtained. For the first time in the worldwide practice the solution is obtained by using converging differential correction of all 60 observed returns of the comet, however, the deviations are still unsatisfactory. The single solution has allowed to draw some preliminary conclusions. The contributions of planetary and nongravitational perturbations to the change of the elements of the orbit during the entire period of observation are determined. The extrapolation of the solution shows that for the past two thousand years the elements of the orbit orientation could change for a half of turnover, which should be taken into account when identifying the comet and associated meteor showers in ancient records. The predictions made by Z. Sekanina and I. Ferrín about oncoming termination of the comet activity are confirmed.