Abstract
Structures have to be designed to withstand the worst gust load expected with some specified low probability. This conventionally depends on an extreme value analysis of severe gusts or mean winds. Gust sensitive vehicles must be operated to avoid, with some specified high probability, the conditions in which destabilising gusts can occur. This can depend on extreme value analysis of gust factors and analysis of joint probabilities of gust factors with mean winds. Both types of analysis were required by Eurotunel during the design and development of its wind fences and meteorological alert systems. This has given the opportunity to predict extreme gusts by both types of analysis. Consideration of the results shows that while high gust speeds are usually associated with high mean wind speeds which are typically observed during the passing of depressions, the probability of exceeding a specified gust during a period of relatively low windspeed cannot always be ignored. The practical application of the joint probability analysis to determine mean wind operating thresholds for gust sensitive vehicles is also explained.
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