Use of fuzzy rule-based evidential reasoning approach in the navigational risk assessment of inland waterway transportation systems

Abstract

A novel approach incorporating a fuzzy rule base technique and an Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm is applied to conduct the navigational risk assessment of an Inland Waterway Transportation System (IWTS). A hierarchical structure for modeling IWTS hazards (hazard identification model) is first constructed taking into account both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The quantitative criteria are converted to qualitative ones by applying a fuzzy rule-based quantitative data transformation technique, which enables the use of ER to synthesize the risk estimates from the bottom to the top along the hierarchy. Intelligent Decision System (IDS) Software is used for facilitating risk synthesis and estimation. The proposed method is tested in a case study to compare the navigational safety levels of three different regions in the Yangtze River.