Use of fleuriet model for forecasting and evaluating municipal electoral results in a brazilian state

Edson Vinicius Pontes Bastos

doi:10.32358/rpd.2020.v6.484

Abstract

Objective: Verify the relation between the variables in the Fleuriet model and the electoral result given by the exchange or maintenance of the party of the prefectures under analysis. Methodology: Through logistic regression it is possible to explain or predict the probability of the occurrence of the event under analysis, such event discussed here refers to the exchange of the party, which is a dummy variable that assumes a value of 1 when there is an exchange and zero otherwise, the method of estimation used to obtain the coefficients was based on maximum likelihood. Results: The relationship between the variables of the Fleuriet model and the electoral result given by the exchange or maintenance of the party in the prefectures of the group under analysis. Limitation or implication of the research: It is noteworthy that such research does not allow generalizations, being a study with reduced scope considering only the city halls of the State of Rio de Janeiro that have financial information disclosed. Originality: showing that city halls with better financial situation tend not to change the party, which was observed in the group under analysis considering the election event in 2020.

Highlights

Accounting and tax information are important tools available to society (Paiva and Carvalho, 2018; Dobroszek et al, 2019)
This paper aims to highlight the results of the liquidity and risk analysis of the financial structure of brazilian cities based on the Fleuriet Model
Regarding the methodological procedure the study is classified as a descriptive documentary approach, since it aims to analyze the financial performance of cities with data obtained from the FINBRA portal that make up the research sample in light of the Fleuriet Model, a proposed analysis tool used by Bastos and Mello (2019)

Summary

Introduction

Accounting and tax information are important tools available to society (Paiva and Carvalho, 2018; Dobroszek et al, 2019). Fleuret’s model provides an analytical view and effectively reveals the need for working capital and the best way to apply it, (Silveira et al, 2015) by segregating current (short-term) assets into cyclicals and erratic In this context, according to Braga et al (2004), Fleuret’s model defines the quality of the financial situation of entities based on the configuration of certain equity elements, without the need to perform interpretations to arrive at a diagnosis, unlike traditional analyzes that require an effort of interpretation and presents traditional results.

Bibliographical Review

Methodology

Fleuriet model applied to municipal balance sheets

Application of the logit regression statistical method

Findings

CONCLUSIONS