Use of DELPHI-AHP Method to Identify annd Analyze Risks in Seaport Dry Port System

Abstract

The dry port concept has recently gained rising consideration in the multimodal transport context from the point of view both of researchers and stakeholders related to the benefits of the seaport dry port system. Given the relevance of the topic, the present paper aims to identify the potential risk factors of the three major parts that constitute the seaport dry port system and present a conceptual framework to facilitate risk factors analysis. Based on a three-step approach, starting with a systematic literature review, which resulted in 204 collected and examined papers, which allowed identifying 181 potential risk factors with an average of 60 risk factors in each major part of the studied system. In addition, we used a survey based on the Delphi technique to ensure a good extraction of data from 12 selected experts related to the seaport dry port system; then, we used the MCDM (Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making) method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) in order to: 1) present a hierarchy that simplifies the complexity of the studied system in an organized structure; 2) analyze and assess risk factors based on the identified criteria. A case study involving the Moroccan seaport dry port system of Casablanca illustrates that the seaport part is critical and any major risk factor in this part can even paralyze the operations of the whole system, especially if that risk factor belongs to the human factors category or economic risk category, which is also considered in the study as a critical category.