Abstract
A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.
Highlights
Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the navigation condition of the reservoir area has greatly improved, which has promoted the development of shipping in this area
Given the task of reflecting the synthesized state of the navigational environment of the Three Gorges Reservoir area from different perspectives and making the selection of an appropriate index for the goal of navigation safety, we found that six key navigational environment factors affect the safety of navigation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, i.e., the visibility, wind power, traffic flow, channel dimension, and route intersection
The mutations of the navigation risk and water traffic accidents arising from the variation of the navigational environment can be regarded as being caused by the combined action of the traffic environment and natural environment
Summary
Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the navigation condition of the reservoir area has greatly improved, which has promoted the development of shipping in this area. According to the mutation model of the navigational environment, the variables of visibility (x1), wind (x2), and water velocity (x3) are classified as control variables of the natural environment (M), whereas the variables of traffic flow (x4), channel dimension (x5), and route intersection (x6) are classified as control variables of the traffic environment (N).
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