Use of CERES-Maize to study effect of spatial precipitation variability on yield

Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine the usefulness of on-farm precipitation measurement, through determining spatial and temporal precipitation variability and its effect on corn yield. CERES-Maize (DSSAT version 3.5) was used with three precipitation data sources, for an Indiana farm—an on-farm National Weather Service (NWS) station, the nearest non-urban NWS station with electronic reporting (27 km from the farm), and a weighted mean of the three nearest such stations (27–35 km away)—to simulate 31 years of crop yield on 1-ha grid cells. Described as a percentage of the mean, spatial precipitation variability among the three data sources by corn phenological phase was 21–104%, while temporal (year-to-year) variability was 20–49%. The difference in simulated yield based on spatial precipitation variability was 15.8%, while year-to-year yield variability was 21.5%. The apparent yield difference based on spatial precipitation variability was of the same order as year-to-year variability, which suggests having on-farm precipitation data may be necessary for accurate yield modeling.