Use of Breast Cancer Risk Factors to Identify Risk-Adapted Starting Age of Screening in China

Abstract

Although current guidelines highlight the need for earlier screening in women at increased risk of breast cancer in China, data on risk-adapted starting ages of screening are limited. To explore the risk-adapted starting age of breast cancer screening in China, with comprehensive consideration of breast cancer risk factors. A multicenter community-based cohort study was conducted under the framework of the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China. Data were collected from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2018, for unscreened community-dwelling women aged 40 to 74 years without a history of cancer, kidney dysfunction, or severe heart, brain, or lung disease. Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2021, to August 16, 2022. Baseline characteristics associated with breast cancer, including first-degree family history of breast cancer, benign breast disease, breastfeeding, age at menarche, and body mass index. Outcomes included breast cancer diagnosis and age at diagnosis. Risk-adapted starting age of screening was defined as the age at which women with different levels of breast cancer risk attained a 10-year cumulative risk level similar to women aged 50 years in the general population. Of the 1 549 988 women enrolled in this study, 3895 had breast cancer (median follow-up, 4.47 [IQR, 3.16-6.35] years). Participants were divided into different risk groups according to breast cancer risk scores (driven by risk factors including first-degree family history of breast cancer, benign breast disease, breastfeeding, age at menarche, and body mass index). Using the 10-year cumulative risk of breast cancer at age 50 years in the general population as a benchmark (2.65% [95% CI, 2.50%-2.76%]), the optimal starting age of screening for women with high, medium, or low risk of breast cancer was identified as 43, 48, or after 55 years, respectively. An online calculator was developed to calculate an individual's optimal starting age of screening. This study identifies the risk-adapted starting age of breast cancer screening based on the principle of equal management of equal risks, which may inform updates of current screening guidelines.