Abstract
Sustainable management of groundwater resources is essential for sound groundwater development, especially in sensitive salt-affected areas. In Northeast Thailand, the Central Huai Luang Basin, underlain by rock salt, is the source of groundwater and soil salinity. The future sustainable groundwater development yield was assessed under the plausible uncertainty of hydrogeological and projected climate scenarios that could impact the groundwater system. The SEAWAT and HELP3 models were used to simulate groundwater system. The four alternative scenarios of hydrogeological conceptual models were formulated to determine the impact on groundwater system and sustainable groundwater yield. In addition, impacts of projected climate conditions on each alternative model were explored. The results indicate that variable depths and thicknesses of rock salt layers have a higher impact on groundwater salinity distribution and sustainable yield estimations than model boundary conditions. Groundwater salinity, shallow water table areas, and sustainable yield projections vary substantially depending on the possible conceptual model scenarios. It is clear that the variable hydrogeological models affect groundwater sustainable yields.
Highlights
Udon Thani Province is the one of the most important socioeconomic provinces of Northeast (NE) Thailand [1]
The results show that the projected water inflow to the aquifers in all scenarios of all models is more than the water outflow from the aquifers, and varies from 43.97 to 146.87.11 MCM/year; groundwater levels tend to increase annually for all scenarios and all models
The uncertainties of the hydrogeological conceptual model and the variable of future climate were considered in future plausible scenarios of the groundwater systems and groundwater management plans in the 30 years
Summary
Udon Thani Province is the one of the most important socioeconomic provinces of Northeast (NE) Thailand [1]. Changes in climatic variables can significantly alter the hydrologic cycle and groundwater recharge, which control water level and salinity distribution These consequences could affect the ground surface and land capability for agriculture activities [15,20,23,24], especially in Northeast Thailand, which already has problems with groundwater and soil salinity. Due to the complexity of the hydrogeological condition, such as the shape and thickness of the rock salt layers underlying the CHLB, it would be risky to use the results of sustainable yield estimation from a single hydrogeological conceptual model for decision-making to govern groundwater development in the basin. A set of alternative hydrogeological conceptual models, as well as possible boundary conditions of groundwater flow and saline water transport, were established to assess the impacts of future climate scenarios on groundwater sustainable yield of the CHLB for the 30 years. The range of the sustainable yields of the CHLB under uncertainty condition could be used as robust information for the decision makers to manage and govern groundwater development in a sustainable manner
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