Abstract
The paper introduces the possibility of using accident prediction models for the identification of hazardous road locations. The application of this method is presented with an example of secondary rural roads in the South Moravian region which are classified into road segments homogeneous in terms of basic geometric and traffic characteristics. The prediction model is represented by a generalized linear model which, on the basis of the available data, determines the expected number of accidents for individual types of road segments. A critical road segment is defined as a segment where the reported number of accidents significantly exceeds the number of expected accidents on roads with similar geometric and traffic characteristics. This method can be used as an effective tool for road network safety management.
Highlights
STUDY BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVESThe study is a part of IDEKO project (“Identification and solutions to critical spots and road segments on the road network which stimulate road users' illegal and improper behaviour, due to their arrangement”) conducted by Centrum dopravního výzkumu, v.v.i. and funded by the Programme of Safety Research of the Czech Ministry of Interior
The first stage of road network safety management is to identify hazardous road locations
None of these systems succeeds in coming closer to the ideal theoretical approach which is described in e.g. Elvik's (2007) work, who claims that critical spots identification and treatment is to be performed as follows:
Summary
The study is a part of IDEKO project (“Identification and solutions to critical spots and road segments on the road network which stimulate road users' illegal and improper behaviour, due to their arrangement”) conducted by Centrum dopravního výzkumu, v.v.i. and funded by the Programme of Safety Research of the Czech Ministry of Interior. The study deals with the network of secondary rural roads in the South Moravian region since this category is, together with primary roads, the most hazardous road category in the Czech Republic. The part introduces the sources of data used in the study, methodological guidelines of designing the accident prediction model and the resulting model form. The final part contains the overview of the study results and a brief description of the work plan of the IDEKO project
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