Use of a spectrum model and satellite cloud data in the simulation of wheat stripe rust ( Puccinia striiformis) dispersal across the Tasman Sea in 1980

Abstract

Long distance dispersal of plant pathogens has been simulated using different approaches. Models to predict dispersal of airborne spores often use simplified methods to estimate solar radiation in order to estimate mortality of spores. We incorporated a spectrum model into a Lagrangian approach to simulate dispersal of wheat stripe rust from Australia to New Zealand across the Tasman Sea. To estimate cloud cover conditions, satellite data were also used in our study. The combination of a spectrum model and satellite cloud data made it easy to identify sites at which viable spores were deposited. In our study, 0.6% of deposition near New Zealand followed exposure to UV radiation less than our mortality threshold (0.9 MJ m −2). Model spores of wheat stripe rust arrived at sites within 40 km from Otama, New Zealand, where wheat stripe rust was first reported in November 1980. It appeared that the uredospores were transported under an overcast cloud condition, which would increase the chance of successful infection on host crops. Further studies on the relationship between solar UV radiation and mortality of pathogen uredospores would facilitate the use of the spectrum model and satellite data to predict dispersal of airborne spores.