Use of a spatially explicit individual-based model to predict population trajectories and habitat connectivity for a reintroduced ursid

Kwang-Seon Moon,Yoonjung Yi,Desiree Andersen,Jeong-Jin Kim,Amaël Borzée,Yikweon Jang,Tae-Wook Kim,Kyungmin Kim

doi:10.1017/s0030605320000447

Kwang-Seon Moon, Yoonjung Yi + Show 6 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1017/s0030605320000447

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Journal: Oryx	Publication Date: Apr 20, 2021
Citations: 8	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Ewha Womans University, Nanjing Forestry University

Abstract

AbstractReintroductions of large carnivore species present unique opportunities to model population dynamics as populations can be monitored from the beginning of a reintroduction. However, analysis of the population dynamics of such reintroduced populations is rare and may be limited in incorporating the complex movements and environmental interactions of large carnivores. Starting in 2004, Asiatic black bears Ursus thibetanus were reintroduced and tracked in the Republic of Korea, along with their descendants, using radio telemetry, yielding 33,924 tracking points over 12 years. Along with information about habitat use, landscape, and resource availability, we estimated the population equilibrium and dispersal capability of the reintroduced population. We used a mixed modelling approach to determine suitable habitat areas, population equilibria for three different resources-based scenarios, and least-cost pathways (i.e. corridors) for dispersal. Our population simulations provided a mean population equilibrium of 64 individuals at the original reintroduction site and a potential maximum of 1,438 individuals in the country. The simulation showed that the bear population will disperse to nearby mountainous areas, but a second reintroduction will be required to fully restore U. thibetanus. Northern suitable habitats are currently disconnected and natural re-population is unlikely to happen unless supported. Our methodologies and findings are also relevant for determining the outcome and trajectories of reintroduced populations of other large carnivores.

Highlights

Understanding large carnivore population dynamics is paramount for predicting the outcome of management interventions such as species reintroductions
Our findings show that the reintroduction programme is a success, as viable populations are established in all suitable core areas in Jiri Mountain National Park, and that the population is close to our simulated equilibrium without needing further supplementation
Our results indicate there will be a need for a second reintroduction and continued conservation efforts for U. thibetanus to restore the species across its original range in the Republic of Korea

Summary

Introduction

Understanding large carnivore population dynamics is paramount for predicting the outcome of management interventions such as species reintroductions. Knowledge of the population dynamics of large carnivores has been used to study carrying capacities (Hayward et al, ; Kawata, ), home range and territory dynamics (Creel, ), predator–prey interactions (Fryxell et al, ; Herfindal et al, ; Höner et al, ) and impacts of human activities (Treves & Karanth, ), and these studies can inform management and conservation practices. To determine the population equilibrium, here defined as the naturally levelling population size (Hui, ), of Jiri Mountain National Park (the site of the original reintroduction programme) and the immediate surrounding area for U. thibetanus. The study area was the U. thibetanus reintroduction site of Jiri Mountain National Park Land development is not allowed within National Parks in South Korea, existing structures can remain upon park creation These landscapes are largely maintained for landscape conservation. Jiri Mountain National Park receives c. million visitors annually (Korea National Parks Service, )

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