Use of a computer simulation model to evaluate a plant disease biocontrol agent

Abstract

A computer simulation model (INHIBSIM) was developed to predict population dynamics of a bacterial biological control agent ( Pseudomonas fluorescens) on the foliage of red pine ( Pinus resinosa) seedlings, and subsequent effects on conidial germination of a fungal plant pathogen ( Gremmeniella abietina). The model was tested under controlled-environment and field conditions. Recoverable populations of bacteria were extremely sensitive to leaf wetness but relatively insensitive to temperature. Germination of conidia was insensitive to small variations in bacterial concentration. Successful biological control of foliar plant pathogens using bacterial antagonists will require identification of agents that do not require dense concentrations to be effective and development of techniques (formulation, environmental manipulation) to enhance their survival. Predictive population models can identify and quantify these requirements, and reduce the costs of evaluating and developing potential biocontrol agents.