Use of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Assessing Species at Risk on Military Lands

Abstract

Abstract : Global climate change is seen as an emerging threat to wildlife species' population distribution and persistence. Climate change vulnerability indexes allow land managers to rapidly assess the vulnerability of species to climate change, and to predict a species persistence into the future. This work evaluated the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as a tool for military land managers. The NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index was applied to three high priority Species at Risk: (1) the Mohave ground squirrel (Spermophilus mohavensis) on Fort Irwin, CA; (2) the Columbia Basin distinct population segment of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the Yakima Training Center, WA; and (3) the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemis) on Fort Stewart, GA. The Index predicted that the Mohave ground squirrel population was not vulnerable to climate change, and that the greater sage-grouse and gopher tortoise populations were moderately vulnerable. The Index was found to be easy to use; it included quantitative, spatially explicit data, and it identified needed research areas for species of conservation concern. However, Index outcome was found to be highly dependent on a single variable, historical hydrological niche, which varied greatly depending on size of assessment area.