Usage of models based on quantitative risk theory for support of decision-making on counteraction of destructive social technologies

Abstract

The object of this research is the process of intergovernmental opposition based on the methods and techniques of “soft power”. The subject of this research is the modeling of personal risks of the participants of sociopolitical processes that ensure counteraction to social destabilization technologies. The article is dedicated to counteraction of destructive technologies implemented in intergovernmental opposition within the framework of “soft power”. For quantitative substantiation of the content of counteraction methods, it is proposed to apply geometrical interpretation of probability-value risk model used in technology and economics, as well as in decision-making on the subconscious level by each individual. The conducted formalization of subject area allowed describing the risk model of making decisions by a specific individual regarding the participation in protect actions. Using the methods of analysis and synthesis, the author examines the behavioral components of the model, as well as its possible effect on the behavior of potential participants of protests through modification of these components. The conclusions are made on possibility of realization of some variations of such effect. Thus, the article targets the development of model of addressing the risks to evaluate the methods of countering “soft power” techniques.