U.S. Strategy after the Arab Uprisings: Toward Progressive Engagement

Abstract

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Marc Lynch, The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East (New York: PublicAffairs, 2012). 2. Peter Baker and David D. Kirkpatrick, “Egypt Leader and Obama Forge Link in Gaza Deal,” New York Times, November 21, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/22/world/middleeast/egypt-leader-and-obama-forge-link-in-gaza-deal.html?pagewanted= all&_r = 0. 3. Colin H. Kahl, Melissa Dalton, and Matthew Irvine, “Risk and Rivalry: Iran, Israel, and the Bomb,” Center for a New American Security, June 2012, http://cnas.org/riskandrivalry. 4. Eric S. Edelman, Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr, and Evan Braden Montgomery, “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran; and Colin H. Kahl, Melissa Dalton, and Matthew Irvine, “Atomic Kingdom: If Iran Builds the Bomb, Will Saudi Arabia Be Next?” Center for a New American Security, February 2013, http://cnas.org/atomickingdom. 5. Thom Shanker, “In Kuwait, Panetta Affirms U.S. Commitment to the Middle East,” The New York Times, December 11, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/12/world/middleeast/in-kuwait-panetta-affirms-us-commitment-to-middle-east.html?_r = 0. 6. David Albright, Christina Walrond, Andrea Stricker, and Robert Avagyan, “ISIS Analysis of IAEA Iran Safeguards Report,” Institute for Science and International Security, November 16, 2012, http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/ISIS_Analysis_IAEA_safeguards_Report_November_16_2012-final.pdf. 7. William C. Witt, et al., “Iran's Evolving Breakout Potential,” report, Institute for Science and International Security, October 8, 2012, http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Irans_Evolving_Breakout_Potential.pdf. 8. Alireza Nader, “Smart Sanctions,” Foreign Policy, September 25, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/25/smart_sanctions. 9. Dalia Dassa Kaye and Frederic, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67942/dalia-dassa-kaye-and-frederic-wehrey-michael-scott-doran/arab-spring-persian-winter; Colin H. Kahl, “Supremely Irrelevant,” Foreign Policy, January 25, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/24/supremely_irrelevant?page = full. 10. Robert F. Worth, “Effort to Rebrand Arab Spring Backfires in Iran,” New York Times, February 2, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/world/middleeast/effort-to-rebrand-arab-spring-backfires-in-iran.html?pagewanted = all. 11. Barbara Slavin, “Poll: Sectarianism, Syria drive negative image of Iran,” Al-Monitor, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/zogby-poll-negative-arab-attitudes-iran-syria.html. 12. Thanassis Cambanis, “How the Arab Spring Killed Hezbollah,” The New Republic, September 20, 2012, http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/107543/how-the-arab-spring-killed-hezbollah#; and Dexter Filkins, “After Syria: If the Assad Regime Falls, Can Hezbollah Survive,” The New Yorker, February 25, 2013, pp. 48–57. 13. “Morsi Criticizes Syria at Tehran Meeting,” Al Jazeera, August 30, 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/20128308579560767.html. 14. F. Gregory Gause, III, “Is Saudi Arabia Really Counter-Revolutionary?” Foreign Policy, August 9, 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary; and F. Gregory Gause, III, “The Gulf Regional System and the Arab Spring,” The Montréal Review, March 2012, http://www.themontrealreview.com/2009/The-International-Relations-of-the-Persian-Gulf.php. 15. For a good overview, see Brian Michael Jenkins, Al-Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory (Santa Monica, CA: The Rand Corp., 2012). 16. Peter Bergen, “Time to Declare Victory: Al-Qaeda is Defeated,” CNN.com, June 27, 2012, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/27/time-to-declare-victory-al-qaeda-is-defeated-opinion/; and Jenkins, Al-Qaeda in Its Third Decade, pp. 5–6. 17. Akiva Eldar, “Israel's New Politics and the Fate of Palestine,” The National Interest, July/August 2012, pp. 5–15, http://nationalinterest.org/article/israels-new-politics-the-fate-palestine-7069. 18. Khaled Elgindy, “Why Palestinians Protest,” Foreign Affairs, September 20, 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138131/khaled-elgindy/why-palestinians-protest. 19. Scott Wilson, “Where Obama Failed in Forging Peace in the Middle East,” Washington Post, July 14, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-searches-for-middle-east-peace/2012/07/14/gJQAQQiKlW_story.html. 20. Eldar, “Israel's New Politics and the Fate of Palestine.” 21. For a summary of Israeli concerns regarding the Arab uprisings, see Efraim Inbar, “Israel's National Security Amidst Unrest in the Arab World,” The Washington Quarterly 35, no. 3 (Summer 2012), pp. 59–73. 22. Daniel Kurtzer, “Reviving the Peace Process,” The National Interest, January/February 2012, pp. 38–46, http://nationalinterest.org/article/reviving-the-peace-process-6281. 23. See, for example, Yosef Kuperwasser and Shalom Lipner, “The Problem is Palestinian Rejectionism,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2011, pp. 2–9, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136588/yosef-kuperwasser-and-shalom-lipner/the-problem-is-palestinian-rejectionism. 24. Office of the Press Secretary, “Remarks by the President on the Middle East and North Africa,” The White House, May 19, 2012, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/19/remarks-president-middle-east-and-north-africa. 25. See, for example, Charles Krauthammer, “Collapse of the Cairo Doctrine,” Washington Post, September 20, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-collapse-of-the-cairo-doctrine/2012/09/20/72fb7f62-035f-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.html ; and Lee Smith, “Obama in Retreat,” The Weekly Standard, July 2, 2012, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/obama-retreat_647776.html?nopager = 1. 26. On the latter, see Robert Kaplan, “Good Mideast Dictators,” Stratfor, July 25, 2012, http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/good-mideast-dictators-robert-d-kaplan. 27. William Kristol, “Obama's Moment in the Middle East – and at Home,” Washington Post, February 23, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022203763.html; and Jamie M. Fly, “Obama is Unwilling to Lead the U.S. Response to the Arab Spring,” U.S. News, September 27, 2012, http://www.usnews.com/debate-club/has-obama-properly-handled-the-arab-spring/obama-is-unwilling-to-lead-the-us-response-to-the-arab-spring. 28. Michael Mazarr, “The Risks of Ignoring Strategic Insolvency,” The Washington Quarterly 35, no.4 (2012), pp.7–22, csis.org/files/publication/twq12FallMazarr.pdf. 29. Christopher Layne, “The Global Power Shift from West to East,” The National Interest, May/June 2012, pp. 30–31, http://nationalinterest.org/article/the-global-power-shift-west-east-6796?page = show; Harvey M. Sapolsky, Benjamin H. Friedman, Eugene Gholz, and Daryl G. Press, “Restraining Order: For Strategic Modesty,” World Affairs Journal, Fall 2009, pp. 84–94, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/restraining-order-strategic-modesty; and Stephen M. Walt, “The End of the American Era,” The National Interest, November/December 2011, pp. 13–15, http://nationalinterest.org/article/the-end-the-american-era-6037. 30. Walt, “The End of the American Era,” pp. 14–15. 31. See Marc Lynch, “Does Obama have a Middle East strategy?” Foreign Policy, January 10, 2013. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/10/does_obama_have_a_middle_east_strategy 32. See, for example, Anne-Marie Slaughter, “A Grand Strategy of Network Centrality,” in Richard Fontaine and Kristin M. Lord, eds., “America's Path: Grand Strategy for the Next Administration,” Center for a New American Security, May 2012, pp. 43–56, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_AmericasPath_FontaineLord_0.pdf. 33. To some extent, this goal is already reflected in U.S. Central Command's “Regional Security Architecture,” but CENTCOM envisions a much larger enduring U.S. presence in the Middle East. See Gen. David Petreaus, Remarks to the 6th International Institute for Strategic Studies Regional Security Summit (The Manama Dialogue), Bahrain, December 12, 2009, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-iiss-regional-security-summit/manama-dialogue-2009/plenary-sessions-and-speeches-2009/fifth-plenary-session/fifth-plenary-session-general-david-petraeus/. Additional informationNotes on contributorsColin H. KahlColin H. Kahl is an Associate Professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American SecurityMarc LynchMarc Lynch is an Associate Professor of Political Science at George Washington University and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security