US MISSILE DEFENCE EFFORTS AND CHINESE RESERVATIONS IN EAST ASIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT Asia, with the world's largest population, extensive natural resources and fast growing economies, has become one of the world's most dynamic regions and a theatre for a variety of actors, distinct interests and national armament efforts. Focusing on East Asia, the most significant regional powers are the US and China, which although they are becoming competitors, also depend on each other over a large number of economic and regional security issues (e.g. North Korea). But on the whole, China and the US are struggling for regional hegemony and influence. They are pursuing large-scale armament efforts and investing heavily in emerging military technologies, thereby feeding the risk of violent confrontations and threatening stability and peace. In this connection, US Missile Defence represents one of China's major concerns. Focusing on US Missile Defence efforts in the Western Pacific region, this article presents an overview of the currently-deployed systems and plans for further development. It analyses the technological capabilities of associated sensor and interceptor elements and estimates their individual abilities to contribute to an integrated US Missile Defence architecture in this region. Finally, this state of short- to mid-term US Missile Defence capacity in the region is situated in relation to its impact on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, taking account of both Chinese security concerns and US security interests. Assuming that both the US and China have a common interest in regional and strategic stability, the article concludes by discussing arms control measures. It suggests concrete options for confidence building and proposes achievable steps, which would promote a Sino-American discourse on joint security issues and strengthen crisis stability as well as regional security.