U.S. Department of Education Data Document a Declining 17-Year Trend in Black College Student Graduation Rates

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to conduct the largest (2002-2018) longitudinal analysis and comparison of Black and White college student 6-year graduation rates. Data were obtained from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) for 17 cohorts (1996-2002 to 2012-2018) of Black and White students. Regression analyses confirmed: (1) a statistically significant negative linear trend for Black students, (2) a statistically significant positive linear trend for White Students, and (3) statistically significant differences between the Black and White student regression lines for both the y-intercepts and slopes. In addition, adverse impact, using the EEOC’s “4/5ths rule” was documented for Black students, as compared to White students, in all 17 cohorts.