Abstract
Significance The Taliban will exploit the White House's desire to withdraw from Afghanistan at almost any cost, including the imposition of defective political solutions. Taliban leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada is gaining in stature in the movement by delivering what most followers see as a favourable deal. Impacts A reduction in US funding will weaken Ghani's position and make it more difficult for him to claim a central role in peace talks. The Taliban can afford to downscale attacks to avoid major urban centres; the point of these was always more political than military. Regional diplomacy will be reshaped if the Taliban start being perceived as a US partner; Pakistan will be the main beneficiary. The Taliban suspect their Pakistani namesake Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is trying to wreck the agreement; relations will remain frosty.
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