U.S. coal outlook in Asia

Abstract

Coal exports from the US to Asia are declining over time as a result of (1) increased competition from coal suppliers within the Asia-Pacific region, (2) changing steel making technologies, (3) decreased emphasis on security of coal supplies, and (4) deregulation of the energy industry--particularly electric utilities. There are no major changes on the horizon that are likely to alter the role of the US as a modest coal supplier to the Asia-Pacific region. The downward trend in US coal exports to Asia is expected to continue over the 1997--2010 period. But economic and policy changes underway in Asia are likely to result in periodic coal shortages, lasting a few months to a year, and short term increased export opportunities for US coal. US coal exports to Asia are projected to fluctuate within the following ranges over the 2000--2010 period: 10--17 million tons in total exports, 6--12 million tons in thermal coal exports, and 4--9 million tons in coking coal exports. The most important role for US coal, from the perspective of Asian coal importing countries, is to ensure a major alternative source of coal supplies that can be turned to in the event of unforeseen disruptions in coal suppliesmore » from the Asia-Pacific region or South Africa. However, the willingness of consumers to pay a premium to ensure US export capacity is declining, with increased emphasis on obtaining the lowest cost coal supplies.« less