US–China commercial rivalry, great war and middle powers

Abstract

This paper examines whether the recent trade war between the US and China would lead to a great power war. In so doing, we rely on two theoretical frameworks, mercantilism and power transition theory, that are likely to link trade war to a military confrontation. Evidence shows that the trade war per se is not a sufficient condition for an all-out war between the US and China. Unlike mercantilists argue, first, we identify the importance of domestic coalitions before trade war being escalated to a military conflict. Second, we find that trade war as economic statecraft is a viable means to suppress a challenger’s capability, which may stop or delay the power transition process. The findings provide implications for middle power countries where strategic choices are required between the two major powers.