US chemicals to slow on manufacturing, trade woes

Abstract

Economists don’t need a crystal ball to predict global industrial growth or recession—they can just check in on recent demand for chemicals. In the second half of 2019, growth slowed for basic and specialty chemicals used to make industrial goods, like coatings, and durable consumer goods, including cars and electronics. Add a few quarters’ lag time, and last year’s slowing demand for chemicals presages a dip in overall manufacturing starting early this year. But any downturn is likely to be shallow, and few economists believe the global economy will enter recession territory. What’s more, growth is likely to tick up in the second half of 2020, according to Oxford Economics. Still, on average, Oxford says, the tally of global growth in gross domestic product will average 2.5% this year and next, a rate the research firm calls “very subdued, even by the standards of the past decade.” Economic growth in