Abstract
Subject The October general elections. Significance The party primaries held on June 30 highlighted popular dissatisfaction with economic performance, which has put the governing Frente Amplio (FA) in an unfavourable position for the election campaign. The government is emphasising that GDP has grown every year since the FA took office in 2005, but the latest data suggests that the economy is deteriorating, affecting labour markets and the FA’s election chances. Impacts The economy has not grown for a year and some sectors are in slight recession; this is likely to improve but not pre-election. The new government’s policy options will be seriously constrained by the fiscal position. The presidential election appears likely to go to a second round.
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