Urmiye Gölü Örneğinde Arazi/Arazi Değişimi Tespit Prosedüründe Hücresel Otomata Markov Yöntemi İle Nesne Tabanlı Sınıflandırma Yaklaşımının Uygulanması

Abstract

The main aim of the present research was to reveal changes on Land-Cover/Land-Use Changes (LC/LUC) patterns in the in the northern coast of the Urmia Lake by applying an object-based image analysis (OBIA) process. Accordingly, in the image process procedures stage, spatial changes on the Urmia Lake surfaces were carefully acquired from the Landsat imageries, since 1987 to 2016. Then, in the second stage, LC/LU change patterns have been precisely delineated, for the southern hillsides of the Misho Mountain. The resulting models showed an overall accuracy of nearly about 92.54% and a Kappa coefficient of 91% in the image classification procedures. In the final stage, by introducing a Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) method and setting a transition matrix, the spatial changes on the LC/LU patterns have been progressively simulated for the approaching years till year 2020 inside the study area. The final models illustrate a meaningful significant decrease in the Urmia Lake surface, accompanying by certain water volumes diminishing tendency, highlighting the fact that the amount of salty lands are meaningfully increasing. This harmful inclination has successively causes a critical diminishing on the vegetation’s types by emerging the most recent changes on LC/LU types accompanying by a critical hyper-saline condition mainly around the coastal parts of the Urmia Lake. Implementations of the current significant changes strongly pointing up that the majority of local biotic and abiotic components are in imitate dangers with serious environmental negative observations. Such rapidly occurring revolutionized changes on LC/LU will impose various critical effects on the existing in danger ecosystems and vulnerable climatic sub-systems in immediate prospect.