Abstract
With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates would be a good choice for China in the future.
Highlights
China’s growing population has made the grain problem prominent
The purpose of this paper is to: 1) find the interaction between agricultural system and pork yield; 2) through the comparison between grain yield and pork yield, discover sections that agricultural system deviated the dietary pattern upgrading; 3) provide suggestions to cater to the upgrading and direction of agricultural system adjusting
Divided the cyclical component of H-P filter into three cycles from crest to crest during 1978 and 2012, neglecting the fluctuation which is shorter than 5 years
Summary
China’s growing population has made the grain problem prominent. People’s dietary pattern is the corresponding system of grain problem. L. Lin country’s pattern, it is called the mode of rich, animal foodstuff is the main component. 2) Developing country’s pattern, the main part of it is plant foodstuff. Annual grain and potato consumption per capita run up to 200 kg, the consumption of meat, eggs and fish only 5 kg, milk consumption is few in some developing countries. 3) Japan pattern, it is called nutrient pattern It holds the characteristics of traditional oriental diet, and absorbs the advantages of the European and American diet, combines with its prosperous economy, annual grain consumption per capita is 110 kg, animal foodstuff is about 135 kg. No matter the meat consumption in rural or urban, it is far less than developed countries’ 270 kg per capita and Japan mode’s 135 kg per capita of animal foodstuff consumption. There is few discussion in meat yield by H-P filter in China
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