Urbanization Level and Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

Abstract

Background:Although adverse effects of high temperature on mortality have been studied extensively in urban areas, little is known of the heat–mortality associations outside of cities.Objective:We investigated whether heat–mortality associations differed between urban and nonurban areas and how urbanicity affected the vulnerability to heat-related mortality.Methods:We first analyzed heat-related mortality risk in each of 102 counties in Jiangsu Province, China, during 2009–2013 using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. The county-specific estimates were then pooled for more urban (percentage of urban population ≥ 57.11%) and less urban (percentage of urban population < 57.11%) counties using a Bayesian hierarchical model. To explain the spatial variation in associations by county, county-level characteristics affecting heat vulnerability were also examined.Results:We found that the overall mortality risk comparing the 99th vs. 75th percentiles of temperature was 1.43 [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.36, 1.50] in less urban counties and 1.26 (95% PI: 1.23, 1.30) in more urban counties. The heat effects on cardiorespiratory mortality followed a similar pattern. Higher education level and prevalence of air conditioning were significantly associated with counties having lower risks, whereas percentage of elderly people was significantly associated with increased risks.Conclusion:Our findings reveal that nonurban areas have significant heat-related mortality risks in Jiangsu, China. These results suggest the need for enhanced adaptation planning in Chinese nonurban areas under a changing climate.Citation:Chen K, Zhou L, Chen X, Ma Z, Liu Y, Huang L, Bi J, Kinney PL. 2016. Urbanization level and vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1863–1869; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP204