Urban travel demand estimation using genetic algorithm

Abstract

Constant increase in urban road traffic is forcing traffic authorities to confront unavoidable congestion problems these days. This creates new challenges for city planners to generate traffic routes with better designs and improve the existing roads. In order to analyze and improve traffic routes, there is a need to understand movement patterns of major vehicular traffic inside the city. Origin Destination(OD) estimation is one such method for understanding the movement patterns. The objective is to find an optimal OD matrix for city traffic, which is a subtle process for classic algorithms. The solution to this problem is Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach which is a search heuristics to find optimal solution from a set of random solutions. A Genetic Algorithm approach has been developed to find an optimal OD matrix, showing the actual travel patterns of significant number of vehicles inside the city. Once the best OD matrix is obtained, it yields a big opportunity for traffic planners to analyze and improve traffic scenario. Genetic Algorithm can play a major role in solving complex problems. In this paper, one such problem of estimating OD matrix of a city is discussed and implemented. In conjunction to genetic algorithm, Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) has been used as a fitness criteria for finding the optimal OD matrix.