Abstract

The work presented below was conducted as part of the World Bank's economic and sector work titled ‘Urban Transport and Climate Change’. It is first a compendium of data—most of it collected as part of the ‘China–GEF–World Bank Urban Transport Partnership Program’—and also provides a preliminary analysis of urban transport characteristics, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for a diverse set of cities in China. This working paper is not in itself intended to be a strategy for urban transport and climate change in China. It is the view of the authors that this research could be an input toward the development of such a strategy in China and more broadly. Although transport in general, and urban transport in particular, is acknowledged to be an important and growing source of GHG emissions, work still needs to be done to develop robust and standardized datasets and frameworks to support a decision‐making process. The paper is intended as a background document to support ongoing discussions about a climate change strategy and to establish a dataset to be made available as a platform for future studies and further refinement. It is hoped that others will take advantage of the dataset created for this study and use it as a basis for projections, comparative analysis, and to test their own hypothesis. Reviewers of this paper have also raised many specific possibilities and interesting ideas for further work, which are summarized in the conclusions. The authors would particularly like to thank AusAID (the Australian Government's overseas aid program), ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program), and GEF (Global Environment Facility) who provided partial financing for this work. The authors would also like to acknowledge the management of the World Bank's Sustainable Development units in East Asia & Pacific Region and Latin American & the Caribbean Region for their support.This article is categorized under: Energy Efficiency > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Infrastructure > Systems and Infrastructure Energy and Climate > Systems and Infrastructure

Highlights

  • This working paper provides a bottom-up estimate of energy use and GHG emissions for the transport sector based on data available at the city and municipal levels

  • Significant growth is expected in urban transport energy use and CO2 emissions in the cities analyzed

  • Non-motorized travel (NMT) is declining in mode share in all cities

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

This working paper provides a bottom-up estimate of energy use and GHG emissions for the transport sector based on data available at the city and municipal levels. Other supplemental sources were used to enrich the dataset for urban transport and energy analysis, namely the most recent China City Statistical Yearbooks. Wuhan was included in a limited number of analyses where data was available from an ongoing Bank operation in that city.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS
URBAN TRANSPORT DRIVERS
Increase in trip-making
Increase in travel distances
Improving vehicle efficiency and fuel content
Data and Methodology
Indicators
Projected Pathways
CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTED FURTHER
PART III. ROAD NETWORK AND VEHICLE FLEET Latest years
Trip-Making
Trip Distances
Income Elasticity of Trip-Making
Mode Shares
Motorization
Income Elasticity of Vehicle Ownership
Findings
Infrastructure
Full Text
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