Urban sustainable development: Unraveling regional land development intensity dynamics and future trends in China

Abstract

AbstractAccompanying the ongoing progression of urbanization, the issue of imbalanced regional land development has become increasingly severe in China. Understanding the current status and changing trends of land development intensity (LDI) is crucial for optimizing the regional land development landscape. In light of this study proposed an new analytical framework of “evaluation‐process‐mechanism‐prediction” to investigate land development intensity in China. Building upon LDI the assessment, this study analyzed spatiotemporal evolution patterns. Subsequently, The Geodetector model was used to explore the factors influencing LDI from four perspectives: policy, society, economy, and nature. Finally, the SSA‐LSTM model was employed to predict the LDI in 2026. The results revealed the following: (1) From 2006 to 2021, the average LDI in China exhibited a continuous upward trend, showcasing diverse development characteristics. Regional disparities were prominent, presenting an overall upward trend from east to west and from south to north. (2) Factors influencing LDI have gradually shifted from being primarily driven by social factors, while also considering natural and policy factors, to being primarily driven by economic factors, while also considering social factors. (3) Based on the forecast, the average LDI is projected to increase and maintain an upward trend. However, the range will reach 6.22, indicating an increasingly pronounced “insufficient and imbalanced” trend among provinces and municipalities.