Abstract
Urban sustainability has been one of the most important issues in the last decades. The modification of watercourses and their integration to power production facilities have resulted in severe environmental impacts around the globe. This study presents a sustainability analysis to examine the current state of the Guandu river basin Brazil. The approach includes the development of a hydrological model to simulate the stream flow, and an evaluation of the impacts of potential scenarios projected for 2035. Future scenarios included climate and land use change, and water transfers from surrounding basins. The results show that future scenarios might distress the total volume of water naturally captured in the basin mainly because of significant changes in precipitation patterns. Such changes could reduce the amount of water and electricity supply in the region, as well as the sustainability of water resources. The proposed model can be used as a decision making support tool to search for sustainable strategies for water and electricity distribution in highly urbanized systems.
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