Abstract
The extension of urban perimeter markedly cuts available productive land. Hence, studies in urban sprawl analysis and modeling play an important role to ensure sustainable urban development. The urbanization pattern of the Greater Asmara Area (GAA), the capital of Eritrea, was studied. Satellite images and geospatial tools were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal urban landuse changes. Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA), Landuse Cover Change (LUCC) analysis and urban sprawl analysis using Shannon Entropy were carried out. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to develop a model of urban growth. The Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network was employed to model the transition potential maps with an accuracy of 85.9% and these were used as an input for the ‘actual’ urban modeling with Markov chains. Model validation was assessed and a scenario of urban land use change of the GAA up to year 2020 was presented. The result of the study indicated that the built-up area has tripled in size (increased by 4,441 ha) between 1989 and 2009. Specially, after year 2000 urban sprawl in GAA caused large scale encroachment on high potential agricultural lands and plantation cover. The scenario for year 2020 shows an increase of the built-up areas by 1,484 ha (25%) which may cause further loss. The study indicated that the land allocation system in the GAA overrode the landuse plan, which caused the loss of agricultural land and plantation cover. The recommended policy options might support decision makers to resolve further loss of agricultural land and plantation cover and to achieve sustainable urban development planning in the GAA.
Highlights
For the first time in history, in 2008, the world reached an important milestone: half of the world population started to live in urban areas
The study indicated that the land allocation system in the Greater Asmara Area (GAA) overrode the landuse plan, which caused the loss of agricultural land and plantation cover
This study shows the application of geospatial tools to analyze urban Landuse Cover Change (LUCC) and to examine the implementation of urban landuse plan based on land capability in the GAA which is under intense land conflict and competition
Summary
For the first time in history, in 2008, the world reached an important milestone: half of the world population started to live in urban areas. Urban sprawl is a rapid expansion of the built-up area into suburbs in a discontinuous low-density and uneven pattern [4,5] It has been criticized for its inefficient use of land resources and large scale encroachment on agricultural land and natural covers [4,6]. There will be severe loss of agricultural area and plantation cover if the land allocation system of the government does not adhere to the landuse plan of GAA prepared by MoLWE-DoL. Recommendations to resolve the conflicting interests of land and policy options are presented
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