Urban Seismic Risk Assessment by Integrating Direct Economic Loss and Loss of Statistical Life: An Empirical Study in Xiamen, China.

Shutian Zhou,Yuwen Lu,Yijun Shi,Guofang Zhai

doi:10.3390/ijerph17218154

Abstract

The growing densities of human and economic activities in cities lead to more severe consequences when a catastrophe such as an earthquake occurs. This study on urban seismic risk evaluation is carried out from the perspective of the direct loss caused by disasters in urban areas, including the measurement of both the expected direct economic loss and loss of life in the face of characteristic earthquakes. Aiming to estimate, quantify and visualize the earthquake risk in each unit of urban space, this research proposes to assess urban seismic risk by integrating the direct economic loss and the loss of statistical life in a disaster, with consideration of diverse earthquake frequencies. Empirical research of the proposed assessment framework and corresponding models is then conducted to measure urban seismic risk in Xiamen, China. Key findings of the case study include the expected direct economic losses and the expected number of deaths in three characteristic earthquakes, their estimated spatial distributions, the average loss of the value of a statistical life (VSL) of one average local resident and the overall seismic risk distributions in Xiamen.

Highlights

Earthquakes are a serious natural hazard in many parts of the world and are often associated with severe property damage and loss of life [1]
Several evaluation units with the highest direct economic loss in earthquakes are found to have a number of urban villages with lower construction standards, making them difficult to protect in severe disasters and leading to a great number of casualties and large economic losses, even in an earthquake of fortification intensity
The proposed urban seismic risk assessment framework consists of three main parts: (1) calculating the annual probability of occurrence of different earthquakes is the starting point—calculations of recurrence rates in a one-year period for the three characteristic earthquakes in Xiamen are a backward extrapolation process based on the known conditions provided in relevant design codes [33,63,65,72]; (2) estimating the direct loss of each seismic intensity scenario is the major contribution of this risk analysis framework, including the evaluations of potential direct economic losses caused by building damage in an earthquake, the loss of the value of a statistical life (VSL), as measured by one average local resident death in a disaster, and predictions of potential earthquake casualties

Summary

Introduction

Earthquakes are a serious natural hazard in many parts of the world and are often associated with severe property damage and loss of life [1]. As the most complicated social ecological system and the most important carrier of human activities, cities often show great fragility in the face of all kinds of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, storms, mountain fires, etc., leading to high casualties and economic losses, which is increasingly a problem, especially in developing countries. China is urbanizing at a rapid pace and facing deepening contradictions between population, resources and the environment, making the frequent occurrence of disasters one of the most vital challenges to sustainable development. As human beings enter the age of a risk society, governments and academia have attached increasing importance to natural disaster risk analysis and public safety issues, while the economic evaluation of disaster losses has become a practical problem [2]. Population and infrastructures highly concentrated in cities, urban seismic risk is growing worldwide

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