Urban River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Model Using Machine Learning

Abstract

This study outlines the preliminary stages of the development of an algorithm to predict the optimal WQ of the Hwanggujicheon Stream. In the first stages, we used the AdaBoost algorithm model to predict the state of WQ, using data from the open artificial intelligence (AI) hub. The AdaBoost algorithm has excellent predictive performance and model suitability and was selected for random forest and gradient boosting (GB)-based boosting models. To predict the optimized WQ, we selected pH, SS, water temperature, total nitrogen(TN), dissolved total phosphorus(DTP), NH3-N, chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved total nitrogen (DTN), and NO3-N as the input variables of the AdaBoost model. Dissolved oxygen (DO) was used as the target variable. Third, an algorithm showing excellent predictive power was selected by analyzing the prediction accuracy according to the input variable by using the random forest or GB series algorithm in the initial model. Finally, the performance evaluation of the ultimately developed predictive model demonstrated that RMS was 0.015, MAE was 0.009, and R2 was 0.912. The coefficient of the variation of the root mean square error (CVRMSE) was 17.404. R2 0.912 and CVRMSE were 17.404, indicating that the predictive model developed meets the criteria of ASHRAE Guideline 14. It is imperative that government and administrative agencies have access to effective tools to assess WQ and pollution levels in their local bodies of water.