Abstract

This study analyzes the development of the urban rail transit industry in China from an overall and macroscopic perspective. Multiple factors were considered, such as the degree of urbanization, non-public vehicle ownership, road capacity, and modal share of public transport in international metropolises, as well as planning and construction of urban rail transit systems in China’s large and extra-large cities. Through extensive investigations and research, this paper presents a comprehensive, systematic, and in-depth analysis and explanation of the domestic social demands and environmental background for the development of urban rail transit in China. Based on national development policies and strategic plans, information on current cutting-edge technologies, the adaptability of various urban rail transit modes, industrial technologies, local finances as well as investment and financing models, this study analyzes the opportunities and challenges that the development of urban rail transit in China faces over the 2016–2020 period aligned with China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. This paper aims to provide a forecast and outlook on the period’s ten major trends. The predicted trends include expanded scale, differentiated development, networked structure, multimodal transit systems, industrial standardization, intelligent systems, self-developed technology, diversified funding, international markets, and strategic planning. This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, development prospects, and future trends of urban rail transit in China and proposes corresponding measures and strategies. The findings can serve as an important and valuable reference for the development of urban rail transit in China and other countries.

Highlights

  • At the beginning of the 2016–2020 period, hereafter referred to as China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period, through extensive research and analysis, the author proposed the “Report on Urban Rail Transit Development in the 13th Five-Year Plan,” which provided an overall and macroscopic perspective on the development of the industry and an analysis of the developmental environment and forecasts of developmental trends

  • The development of the urban rail transit industry in the 13th FiveYear Plan period gave rise to higher requirements for industrial standardization: World-class development requires the guidance of standardization, multimodal development demands discipline from standardization, network development requires the support of standardization, and the “Going Global” strategy necessitates the assurance of standardization

  • By combining national development strategy and plans, current cutting-edge technologies, the adaptability of various urban rail transit modes, the development of industrial technologies, local finances, and investment and financing models, this article conducted an in-depth analysis of the opportunities and challenges faced by the development of urban rail transit during 2016–2020, the 13th Five-Year Plan period

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Summary

Introduction

At the beginning of the 2016–2020 period, hereafter referred to as China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period, through extensive research and analysis, the author proposed the “Report on Urban Rail Transit Development in the 13th Five-Year Plan,” which provided an overall and macroscopic perspective on the development of the industry and an analysis of the developmental environment and forecasts of developmental trends. Within the 18 months following the report, the author successively presented a supplementary report and a phase review on the developmental trends of the 13th Five-Year Plan based on the urban rail transit industry’s development. This article combines these three reports in order to offer a comprehensive and in-depth reflection on the development and future prospects of the urban rail transit industry in China. Five major factors of developmental environment were found to have a profound impact on the development of urban rail transit during the 13th Five-Year Plan period

The “Five Major Factors” Boosting Large-Scale Development of Urban Rail Transit
Rise in Urban Population
Non-Public Vehicle Ownership Increasing
Green Modes of Urban Transport
Ongoing Urban Rail Transit Projects
Future Urban Rail Transit Plans
Plan 1
Plan 2
Plan 3
The “One
Major Factor 1
Major Factor 2
Major Factor 3
Expanded Scale
Differentiated Development for Different Cities
Enhancing Networked Structure
Promoting Diversity in Operating Modes
Industrial Standardization
Intelligent Systems
Self-Developed Technologies
Diversified Funding
Entering and Preparing for International Market
3.10 Conducting Strategic Planning
Findings
Conclusion
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