Urban Morphology and Surface Urban Heat Island Relationship During Heat Waves: A Study of Milan and Lecce (Italy)

Abstract

The urban heat island (UHI) effect, marked by higher temperatures in urban areas compared to rural ones, is a key indicator of human-driven environmental changes. This study aims to identify the key morphological parameters that primarily contribute to the development of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and investigates the relationship between SUHII and urban morphology using land surface temperature (LST) data from the Sentinel-3 satellite. The research focuses on Milan and Lecce, analyzing how urban geometry affects SUHII. Factors such as building height, aspect ratio, sky visibility, and surface cover are examined using approximately 1000 satellite images from 2022 and 2023. The study highlights seasonal and diurnal variations in SUHII, with particular emphasis on HW periods. Through multicollinearity and multiple regression analyses, the study identifies the main morphological drivers influencing SUHII in the two cities, specifically the Impervious Surface Fraction (ISF) and Mean Building Height (HM). Milan consistently exhibits higher SUHII, particularly during HWs, while Lecce experiences a negative SUHII, especially during the summer, due to lower urban density, more vegetation, and the low soil moisture around the urban area. Both cities show positive SUHII values at night, which are slightly elevated during HWs. The heat wave analysis reveals the areas most susceptible to overheating, typically characterized by high urban density, with ISF and HM values in some cases above the 90th percentile (0.8 and 13.0 m, respectively) compared to the overall distribution, particularly for Milan. The research emphasizes the importance of urban morphology in influencing SUHII, suggesting that detailed morphological analysis is crucial for developing climate adaptation and urban planning strategies to reduce urban overheating and improve urban resilience to climate change.