Urban long term electricity demand forecast method based on system dynamics of the new economic normal: The case of Tianjin

Abstract

The development of the new economic normal is influencing the total economy, the industrial structure and the layout in China to a great extent. The pillar industry faces a transformation from factor-driven to innovation-driven. The traditional electricity demand prediction model is no longer applicable due to these new factors. Thus, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the new influencing factors, and establishes the quantitative relationship based on econometrics. According to industry division, this paper proposes a long term electricity demand forecasting model that is suitable for the new economic normal by using system dynamics method. Finally, the paper combines the actual situation of Tianjin and the forecasting model to predict the electricity demand of Tianjin. Simultaneously, the paper makes some suggestions about the development of the grid company.