Urban land surface temperature prediction using parallel STL-Bi-LSTM neural network

Abstract

Accurate temperature prediction is of great significance to human life and social economy. A series of traditional methods and machine learning methods have been proposed to achieve temperature prediction, but it is still a challenging problem. We propose a temperature prediction model that combines seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) and the bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network to achieve high-accuracy prediction of the daily average temperature of China cities. The proposed model decomposes the temperature data using STL into trend component, seasonal component, and remainder component. Decomposition components and the original temperature data are input into the two-layer Bi-LSTM to learn the features of the temperature data, and the sum of prediction of three components and the original temperature data prediction result are added using learnable weights as the prediction result. The experimental results show that the average root mean square error and mean absolute error of the proposed model on the testing data are 0.11 and 0.09, respectively, which are lower than 0.35 and 0.27 of STL-LSTM, 2.73 and 2.07 of EMD-LSTM, 0.39 and 0.15 of STL-SVM, achieving a higher precision temperature prediction.