Abstract
In this paper, we provide nominal and worst-case estimates of radiative forcing due to the UHI effect using a Weighted Amplification Albedo Solar Urbanization model. This calculation is done with the help of reported findings from UHI footprint and heat dome studies that simplify estimates for UHI amplification factors. Using this method, we quantify a global warming range due to the UHI effect, including its extent. Forcing estimates varied approximately between 0.07 and 0.87 W/m2 representing 3% to 36% of global warming relative to the greenhouse gas forcing estimates between 1950 and 2019. Variations in our model are due to the urbanized area and associated UHI amplification estimate uncertainties. However, the model showed consistent values of about 0.16 W/m2/% solar effective amplified areas and 1.6 W/m2/%Δalbedo for the urbanized coverage forcing values. The basic model is additionally used to quantify feedback warming due to Arctic sea ice loss. Feedback estimates contribute to the impact of UHI forcing assessments. From our median estimates, it is concluded that UHIs contribute significantly to global warming trends. The model is versatile and also provides UHI albedo reverse forcing assessments. The results provide insight into the UHI area effects from a new perspective using a global view albedo model compared to prior ground-based measurement studies. It also illustrates the utility of using effective UHI amplification estimates when assessing their warming effect on a global scale.
Highlights
There are few recent publications about possible Urban Heat Islands (UHI) influences on global warming
We show its utility by extending it to a weighted albedo solar (WAS) model for global warming estimates due to arctic ice melting in Appendix 4
We do not know the true diameter of the dome, but it is larger than the assessment by Fan et al Using their dome extend applied to the area diameter D increase from 1950 to 2019, the amplification factor should be correlated to the ratios of the dome spherical surface areas: AFUHI for 2019 =
Summary
There are few recent publications about possible UHI influences on global warming. more up-to-date related studies, including UHI amplification effects that will be discussed in this paper, could offer supporting data for climate change theories and solutions. The IPCC (Satterthwaite et al [19]) AR5 report references a Schneider et al [20] study that resulted in urban coverage of 0.148% of the Earth (Table 1) This seemingly small area tends to dismiss the role that the UHI effect can play in large-scale global warming. Further clarification and guidance is provided in our conclusion where GW estimates are weighted heavily based on Schneider’s value We use both the Schneider et al and GRUMP studies for the minimum nominal and maximum worstcase urbanization area estimates, respectively, and provide a weighting method for the final results. These area estimates were done using datasets near the year 2000, a reasonable point in time to extrapolate down to 1950 and up to 2019 (see Sect. 2.5), the two periods of this study
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