Urban heat health risk assessment in Singapore to support resilient urban design — By integrating urban heat and the distribution of the elderly population

Abstract

Elderly people are more vulnerable than other age groups to the increasing urban heat risk caused by both climate change and urbanization. This study developed a systematic method to assess the urban heat health risk to the aging population in high-density tropical cities. Based on the assessment, the study identifies high heat health risk districts, diagnoses specific reasons in individual districts, and suggests specific solutions. First, we applied an existing GIS model to quantitatively evaluate urban heat island (UHI) intensity, which is influenced by both longwave radiation and anthropogenic heat. Second, the urban heat health risk to the elderly in individual districts was weighted by UHI intensity, density and proportion of the elderly population in different districts. The integrated mapping results showed that the old HDB neighborhoods in the Central Region are at the highest risk, with a higher UHI intensity, density and proportion of the elderly population than other districts. Based on the analysis, we suggest both UHI mitigation strategies, social support, and facilities for the elderly population at Singapore HDB neighborhoods. Research outputs allow different stakeholders to understand various issues of individual neighborhoods regarding the urban heat health risk to the elderly and to develop corresponding solutions. • A new method is developed to assess heat health risks on aging population, by heat, exposure, and vulnerability. • GIS overlapping map is used to identify specific heat health risk reasons at districts. • Nighttime air temperature is used to assess urban heat health issue, rather than land surface temperature. • Older neighborhoods in the Central Region of Singapore are at the highest risk. • Both adaptation and mitigation recommendations are provided to develop systematic and specific strategies.