Urban growth simulation guided by ecosystem service trade-offs in Wuhan metropolitan area: Methods and implications for spatial planning

Abstract

The effective integration of ecosystem services (ESs) and urban growth simulation is crucial for spatial planning decisions that support sustainable and high-quality development. Interactions (i.e., trade-offs, synergies, and irrelevance) generally exist among ESs, however, few studies have been done on the methodology for simulating urban growth that optimizes the synergistic effect of ESs. In this study, the Wuhan metropolitan area was taken as the research area. Four key ESs in 2000, 2010, and 2020: water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR) were evaluated by using the InVEST model. Then the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was applied to optimally allocate ESs trade-offs and identify ecological priority protection areas (EPPAs). Finally, the PLUS model was used to simulate urban growth scenarios under different levels of ESs protection constraints and propose spatial planning strategies. The results revealed the following. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the three ESs (i.e., WY, CS, and HQ) exhibited the spatial distribution pattern with high in the east and low in the west, and higher in the woodland than in built-up areas, except SR, which remained at a weak level throughout the region. (2) During the 20 years, SR and the other three ESs, HQ and CS showed a synergistic relationship; WY exhibited a very weak trade-off with HQ; and WY and CS changed from a very weak trade-off to a weak synergy. (3) Seven ecosystem service patterns (ESPs) were generated, and ESP 5 was compared as the ideal option. The weights of SR, WY, CS, and HQ in this pattern were 0.063, 0.187, 0.313, and 0.437, respectively. (4) By 2030, the built-up areas will exhibit edge expansion and interconnection development trends, with the high-constraint ecological protection scenario as the most compact mode, and the spatial structure of “two districts, one axis, four cities as one” is consistent with the development tendency. Our findings can help to enrich the method of urban growth management oriented by ecological protection, and provide a scientific basis for ecological environment restoration and land use spatial planning practices.