Urban Growth Prediction of Kolkata City Using SLEUTH Model

Abstract

Due to increasing urbanization, urban growth or sprawl monitoring and measurement is needed in the developing countries like in India. For findings the urban growth and prediction of upcoming possible development of Kolkata city the SLEUTH model is employed. It is one of the most important urban development models which is utilized all over the world. The model was calibrated through the historical past data which are extracted from the satellite images in different time period. Six input data are used in this model such as slope, land use, excluded, urban extent, transportation, and hillshade. All the inputs were derived from the satellite image, and that was classified through the Maximum Likelihood classification technique. In this research, five Landsats temporal data (1978, 1988, 2000, 2010 and 2020) were used for prediction of urban growth of Kolkata City. The historical urban scenario is presented in this study which allowed urban expansion persistence in the previous trend. Calibration results show that the spread coefficient value is high which indicates the future prediction of Kolkata city is edge enlargement. Study revealed that in future more urban expansion may happen from 2020 to 2040 in the north-east and south-east positions of the Kolkata City. Besides, it is also observed that in future in the year of 2040 about 70% of total study area may be occupied by the urban area.