Abstract
In this research, the SLEUTH urban growth model is calibrated and validated for the first time to post Soviet Union cities. The aim of the study is to monitor, assess, simulate and compare the spatiotemporal urban growth dynamics and spatial patterns of the two largest cities Almaty and Astana using free remote sensing data. The urban expansion metrics and SLEUTH model are used to assess the urban growth dynamics. Though the capital has been moved to Astana from Almaty in 1998, Almaty is still developing faster than Astana. The urban growth simulation results from SLEUTH show Astana will surpass the urban growth of Almaty to emerge as the largest city in Kazakhstan by 2030. Astana may experience more leapfrog and ribbon developments. In Almaty, the urban growth may likely to take place in north and north-west parts.
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