Abstract
This study investigates the role of urban form as a technological driver of U.S. CO2 emissions for the onroad and residential sectors. The STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Region on Population, Affluence, and Technology) human structural ecology framework is extended by drawing from science and technology studies (STS) to theorize urban form as a sociotechnical system involving practices and knowledge that contribute to urban land use as a material artifact on the landscape influencing emissions. Questions addressed are: (1) “What is the influence of urban form on total sector CO2 emissions?” and (2) “How does the influence of urban form on CO2 emissions differ for metropolitan versus non-metropolitan status?” Spatial error regression models were estimated using county-level CO2 emissions data from Project Vulcan. The National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) was used to quantify measures of urban form. Other independent variables were derived from U.S. Census data. Results demonstrate carbon reduction benefits achievable through a developed land use mix containing a greater proportion of high intensity relative to low intensity use. Urban form matters, but it matters differently in terms of sign, significance, and interpretation depending on emission sector and metro versus non-metro status. A focus on urban form provides policymakers potential leverage for carbon mitigation efforts that focus on total emissions as opposed to per capita emission. A feature of the research is its integration of concepts and theory from structural human ecology, STS, land change science, and GIScience.
Highlights
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is the major contributor to global climate change [1], with urban areas contributing a majority share of emissions [2,3]
Empirical research has extended IPAT to estimate drivers of CO2 emission using statistical regression techniques follow the STIRPAT framework [9,10], which is described in a following section
Two research questions are posed: (1) What is the influence of urban form on CO2 emissions in the conterminous U.S.? (2) How does the influence of urban form on CO2 emissions differ for metropolitan versus non-metropolitan status?
Summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is the major contributor to global climate change [1], with urban areas contributing a majority share of emissions [2,3]. Researchers across disciplines have sought to understand carbon emission effects of population, income, technology, and energy intensity using the Kaya Identity, the IPAT identity, and the STIRPAT framework [4]. The Kaya Identity is an equation for computing the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused by humans for a defined region, and is named after its originator Yoichi Kaya [5,6]. It expresses total emission levels as the product of four factors: Human population size, GDP per capita, energy intensity (per unit of GDP), and carbon intensity (emissions per unit of energy consumed). STIRPAT is an acronym for Stochastic Impacts by Region on Population, Affluence, and Technology
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