Abstract
During the last three decades, Delhi has witnessed extensive and rapid urban expansion in all directions, especially in the East South East zone. The total built-up area has risen dramatically, from 195.3 sq. km to 435.1 sq. km, during 1989–2020, which has led to habitat fragmentation, deforestation, and difficulties in running urban utility services effectively in the new extensions. This research aimed to simulate urban expansion in Delhi based on various driving factors using a logistic regression model. The recent urban expansion of Delhi was mapped using LANDSAT images of 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The urban expansion was analyzed using concentric rings to show the urban expansion intensity in each direction. Nine driving factors were analyzed to detect the influence of each factor on the urban expansion process. The results revealed that the proximity to urban areas, proximity to main roads, and proximity to medical facilities were the most significant factors in Delhi during 1989–2020, where they had the highest regression coefficients: −0.884, −0.475, and −0.377, respectively. In addition, the predicted pattern of urban expansion was chaotic, scattered, and dense on the peripheries. This pattern of urban expansion might lead to further losses of natural resources. The relative operating characteristic method was utilized to assess the accuracy of the simulation, and the resulting value of 0.96 proved the validity of the simulation. The results of this research will aid local authorities in recognizing the patterns of future expansion, thus facilitating the implementation of effective policies to achieve sustainable urban development in Delhi.
Highlights
Urban expansion models are a useful tool for understanding the dynamics of the urban environment [1]
Despite many previous studies devoted to exploring urban expansion, this study is novel as it provides a comprehensive overview of urban expansion dynamics in Delhi, including its driving factors, spatial patterns, trends, and intensity
The results have revealed that a rapid urban expansion against urban sustainability has occurred in Delhi during 1989–2020
Summary
Urban expansion models are a useful tool for understanding the dynamics of the urban environment [1]. Many researchers and scholars have applied various techniques to predict and simulate urban expansion [2,3,4,5,6]. Simulating future urban expansion helps in the effective management of land use/cover in cities [5,7]. In this regard, several models have been developed to simulate future urban expansion in many cities. Omar et al have used a hybrid model of Markov chain and logistic regression to simulate future urban expansion in Aswan city, Egypt [8]. Tayyebi et al have utilized a logistic regression model to simulate urban expansion in the Shiraz
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