Urban Expansion and Carbon Emission Logistic Curve Hypothesis and Its Verification: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Abstract

Based on the general patterns of urban expansion and carbon emissions at home and abroad, the IPCC carbon emission coefficient estimation method and logistic equation are applied to verify the logistic curve relationship between urban expansion and carbon emissions and to quantitatively measure the upper limit of carbon emissions and the inflection point of carbon emission growth. The results show that (1) the corresponding cumulative carbon emission intensity of foreign (regional) urban expansion gradually decreases during the transition from the primary stage to the saturation stage; (2) urban expansion and carbon emissions in China are characterized by cyclical fluctuations during the 1978–2014 period, and the fluctuations of the two show significant decoupling or divergence after 2014; and (3) urban expansion and carbon emission in Jiangsu province during the 2002–2019 period shows a logistic curve hypothesis relationship, and the cumulative carbon emissions in the built-up areas of Southern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu show an inflection point when they reach 3128.12 km2, 627.25 km2 and 973.9 km2, with the cumulative carbon emission caps of 197.238 × 108 t, 14.487 × 108 t and 29.289 × 108 t, respectively.