Urban Ecosystem Health Assessment of Foshan city based on Entropy and Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

According to the connotation of urban ecosystem health and the ecosystem situation in Foshan, the health assessment index system was constructed which including five factors of vigor, organization, resilience, ecosystem service, population health and the assessment standard was also determined. The index weight was determined by entropy value method. Fuzzy mathematical evaluation method was applied to Foshan urban ecosystem health assessment from 2003 to 2012. Grey predicting model GM (1, 1) was established to analyze dynamic of ecosystem health in future. The results showed that urban ecosystem health developed from sick status to unhealthy status and healthy status in Foshan during 2003-2012. Vigor and organization were two factors advantageous to urban ecosystem health. Ecosystem service had been improved a lot. Resilience and population health were the two main stressful factors of urban ecosystem health. On the whole, Foshan urban ecosystem health showed an improving trend year by year. The status of ecosystem health had much to be improved through proper measures to alleviate or eliminate the stress factors. The GM (1, 1) model had good performance on model fitting and forecasting. It showed the city would maintain a good development in the next five years.