Urban Development Over Time in Large Areas in the U.S., 1950-2010

Abstract

Growth in housing units over time in areas that change from rural to urban and are added to urban areas is examined using data for decades before and after that transition for 59 large urban areas in the United States. Mean housing unit density increases slowly long before areas become urban with the increases becoming greater at that time and then tapering off decades later. On average the greatest growth actually occurs in the decade after an area has been incorporated into the urban area. Summary measures of growth after areas become urban are used to examine relationships of growth over time to other urban area characteristics. After areas have become urban, growth is greater in those urban areas having larger increases in overall urban area size. Newly urban areas have grown faster on average in the West, while those in the Northeast have shown the least growth. Barriers to urban expansion including wetlands and having an arid climate also seem to encourage more rapid development. The combination of overall urban growth and barriers to development are used in simple models to make surprisingly good predictions of the growth of these areas over time.