Urban density versus regional dispersion: On the risks in high-density conurbations in Germany during COVID-19

Abstract

Significant research has been devoted to understanding how environmental factors affect the COVID-19 risks local populations face. Urban density has been identified as a critical factor, posing a particular threat in densely populated countries like Germany, one of Europe's most crowded nations. Furthermore, the high degree of interconnectivity between German regions increases the risk of virus transmission from infection hotspots through regional dispersion. Our research uses linear and non-linear regression models, enhanced with longitude and latitude, to assess the relative impact of population density and regional dispersion of COVID-19 mortality across German counties. Our findings, adjusted for health-related variables, indicate that locational factors have a three times greater impact on mortality than density does. This highlights that pandemic mortality risk is shaped not only by our individual responses but also by the actions of our neighbours. Consequently, our research suggests that, given the increasing global interdependence, regional sprawl cannot be the dominant strategy for planners to avoid the consequences of a pandemic. Instead, the priority should be efficient information management to identify and mitigate interdependence with infection hotspots, which requires enhanced international cooperation.