Urban cycle models revisited: Insights for regional planning in India

Abstract

This paper revisits the potential of urban cycle models to investigate the current challenges of urbanisation in India. It contributes not only by empirically examining the past, current and future trend of urban development, but also by predicting the demand for social infrastructure for sustainably accommodating the predicted growth. Using a non-spatial model, rapid growth is predicted in small cities in developed regions and in intermediate cities in developing regions. The adopted spatial model suggests a decline of megacity cores, but the growth of million-plus city cores and respective peripheries should be anticipated. Socio-economic factors are helpful for understanding the growth of million-plus city cores and megacity suburbs. In those cities predicted to grow, the provision of health and education infrastructure will be below the government norms. Given the data constraints, rapid growth and institutional constraints, this research develops and implements an analytical approach, thereby enhancing understanding of spatial development and elucidating the policy reforms needed to reduce the spatial disparities in India. This approach is transferable to the regions of the Global South facing similar constraints.